5 years, 6 months ago AFBF
Concerns over weak farm income forced a sharp decline in the monthly Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The index dropped to a reading of 114, 15 points below its August reading of 129 and its lowest reading since October 2016. Organizers say the barometer, a sentiment index based upon a nationwide monthly survey of 400 U.S. agricultural producers, has been unusually volatile in recent months. The volatility reflects uncertainty in farm country with trade issues, the expectation of bumper crops and low prices. Producers indicated that financial conditions on many farms deteriorated significantly as 2018 unfolded and farmers' expectations for the future weakened as well. On the September survey, 54 percent of respondents said their farms' financial condition was worse than a year earlier, and asked to look ahead, 33 percent of producers in September said they expect financial conditions on their farm to be worse a year from now.
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USMCA Trade Deal Sets Stage for Addressing China Trade
With the North American Free Trade Agreement renegotiation effort complete, the Trump administration is expected to turn its trade attention to China and its neighbors. The U.S. and China are in the midst of a tit-for-tat trade war started by President Trump. The Wall Street Journal says the U.S. should “follow this template” from the NAFTA talks to engage with Asia-Pacific trading partners and revive the dream of building a new, rules-based trading bloc to counter China. That was previously the goal of the Trans-Pacific Partnership that President Trump removed the U.S. from upon taking office. The Wall Street Journal opinion piece suggests that the U.S. should follow suit in Asian trade markets as part of its goal of boxing out China. Trade talks are set to begin between the U.S. and Japan soon, marking a potential start on the region. The U.S. Grains Council has previously stated that Southeast Asia specifically represents a region of substantial potential growth for U.S. farmers.
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Canada Dairy Industry: New NAFTA a Bad Outcome
Dairy farmers in Canada “paid the price” to conclude an international trade agreement, according to Dairy Farmers of Canada. The recently announced U.S.-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement that will replace the North American Free Trade Agreement includes allowing the U.S. expanded dairy market access. Canada’s dairy industry says the concessions show Canada is “willing to sacrifice our domestic dairy production when it comes time to make a deal.” The issue for Canada dairy farmers is deeper than the NAFTA renegotiation, however. The USMCA follows two previous trade agreements in which access to the Canadian dairy market was granted, CETA, the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, and the CPTPP that replaced the Trans-Pacific Partnership sacrificed the equivalent of a quarter of a billion dollars annually in dairy production to other countries. The USMCA, according to the Canada dairy association, not only gives more access to the Canadian dairy market, but it also “lets the Americans dictate” Canada’s dairy policies. The organization says the livelihood of the thousands of Canadians and the future generations of dairy producers is seriously at risk due to the agreement.
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USMCA: No Pathway Forward for Beef Labeling
The U.S. Cattlemen’s Association expressed disappoint a new trade deal between the U.S., Mexico and Canada does not include a viable pathway forward for country-of-origin labeling on U.S. beef products. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement, or USMCA, will replace the North American Free Trade Agreement. U.S. Cattlemen’s Association President Kenny Graner says the organization is “disappointed that the Administration turned its backs on U.S. cattle producers.” The organization says the administration missed an opportunity to reestablish a viable country-of-origin labeling program for U.S. beef products. In August, the association sent a letter to President Trump outlining how they believed a modernized NAFTA could reinstate COOL and “prevent U.S. agriculture jobs from being outsourced to other countries that can produce beef at a lower cost.” The association says in a statement that it will “continue to seek out avenues” for the return of COOL.
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Scientists and Economists Unite Against USDA Move
More than 1,100 scientists and economists penned a letter opposing the Trump administration proposal to realign and relocate programs within the Department of Agriculture. The group is opposed to the USDA plan to move the Economic Research Service under the Office of the Chief Economist and to relocate most of the positions in ERS and the National Institute of Food and Agriculture out of the Washington metropolitan area, according to the Hagstrom Report. In the letter, the coalition urged Congress to delay the reorganization until all stakeholders, including USDA employees, can provide proper input. The letter says the group is worried that moving the Economic Research Service from the Research, Education and Economics mission area will undermine the agency’s work to objectively collect and analyze data on issues ranging from agriculture and conservation to food and rural development and moving the agencies out of Washington would reduce their access to data from other agencies.
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USDA NASS Announces Ag Census Release Date
USDA’s National Ag Statistics Service this week announced data from the 2017 Census of Agriculture is scheduled to be released starting on February 21, 2019, in conjunction with the 2019 Agricultural Outlook Forum. More than 70 percent of farmers responded to the Department of Agriculture’s 2017 Census of Agriculture, down from the previous response rate of 74.5 percent. The Census, conducted once every five years, was mailed to more than three million known and potential farms and ranches across the United States late last year. A USDA official noted that the agency made it easier to fill out questionnaires this time around, but conceded “it is unrealistic to think that everyone will respond to any survey. Data collection ended this July. Puerto Rico and other U.S. territories will receive their Census of Agriculture questionnaires in January 2019. All Census data products will be available on NASS’ recently merged NASS/Ag Census website at www.nass.usda.gov/AgCensus.
